With four weeks of the 2026 NFL season in the books, the Super Bowl picture is beginning to separate.

Peter Dewey ranks all 32 teams using their latest Super Bowl odds, while also weighing recent performances and where he believes the betting market may be right or wrong.

1. San Francisco 49ers (+850), Last Week: No. 2

San Francisco has climbed to the top after opening the season 4-0, including wins over the Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos. The 49ers have also seen their Super Bowl odds improve from +900 to +850.

“The 49ers are in the driver’s seat in the NFC West,” analyst Peter Dewey wrote on Sports Illustrated on October 6.

Brock Purdy has not been sacked this season, while San Francisco entered Week 4 with the league’s best offensive EPA per play. The 49ers now have a divisional meeting with Seattle in Week 5 and hold the third-best Super Bowl odds in the league.

2. Kansas City Chiefs (+950), Last Week: No. 3

Kansas City moved up another spot after starting 4-0 and surviving a tough game against the Raiders. The Chiefs also saw their Super Bowl odds shorten from +1100 to +950 despite injuries to Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton.

“Kansas City is BACK,” Dewey wrote.

Kenneth Walker III has given the revamped offense another weapon, while Patrick Mahomes’ postseason record continues to strengthen Kansas City’s case. The Chiefs now sit behind only the 49ers and a few other teams in the betting market.

3. Seattle Seahawks (+950), Last Week: No. 4

Seattle bounced back from its loss to Washington by building a big lead before holding off the Los Angeles Chargers. The defending champions are now 3-1 and moved up another spot in the rankings.

“This defense remains one of the best units in the league,” Dewey said.

The Seahawks entered Week 4 among the NFL’s top 10 teams in offensive and defensive EPA per play. Sam Darnold’s turnovers remain a concern, but Dewey still views Seattle as one of the league’s strongest teams.

4. Buffalo Bills (+750), Last Week: No. 1

Buffalo’s two-week run at No. 1 came to an end after the Bills lost at home to the New England Patriots. Their Super Bowl odds also shifted slightly from +700 to +750.

Dewey wrote, “Josh Allen may will the Bills to a deep playoff run.”

However, the writer pointed to some concerns with Buffalo’s roster after Drake Maye and the Patriots exposed the defense. The Bills remain among the favorites, but Dewey now views them as a more volatile bet at their current price.

5. Los Angeles Rams (+650), Last Week: No. 11

The Rams made one of the biggest jumps of the week after coming back from a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Philadelphia Eagles. The win moved Los Angeles from No. 11 to No. 5.

“The Rams might have saved their NFC West division hopes on Sunday,” Dewey wrote.

Los Angeles is now 2-2 and remains the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl at +650. The Rams will face Buffalo on Monday Night Football in Week 5.

6. Baltimore Ravens (+850), Last Week: No. 5

Baltimore slipped one spot after Lamar Jackson suffered an injury that could affect the team’s outlook. Jackson left the stadium in a walking boot, while the Ravens became smaller favorites against Atlanta in Week 5.

Dewey noted, “If Lamar is healthy, the Ravens are still contenders.”

Baltimore’s Week 5 line moved from six-point favorites to 3.5-point favorites following Jackson’s injury. The Ravens’ Super Bowl odds remain strong at +850, but Jackson’s status is now a major factor.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (+1500), Last Week: No. 8

Jacksonville continued its strong start by taking down another AFC playoff contender in Cincinnati. The Jaguars moved up one place and saw their Super Bowl odds improve from +2200 to +1500.

Dewey wrote, “The defending AFC South champs are right back in the mix to win the division.”

The Jaguars are now in position to challenge for another AFC South title and could also be in the wild-card picture. Their latest win over Joe Burrow and the Bengals helped strengthen that case.

8. Chicago Bears (+1800), Last Week: No. 13

Chicago made one of the biggest moves in the rankings, jumping five spots after winning back-to-back games. The Bears have managed those victories without Caleb Williams and are now firmly involved in the NFC North race.

Dewey wrote, “Ben Johnson may be the best coach in the NFL.”

Chicago’s Super Bowl odds have dropped to +1800 after opening the season at +3000 or longer at most sportsbooks. The Bears are also pushing to repeat as NFC North champions.

9. Denver Broncos (+2000), Last Week: No. 7

Denver slipped two places despite its Super Bowl odds remaining unchanged. Both of the Broncos’ losses have come against undefeated teams, Kansas City and San Francisco.

Dewey wrote, “I don’t want to take too much away from this team.”

The biggest concern is the health of Pat Surtain II, whose ankle injury could have a major effect on Denver’s chances in the AFC. The Broncos remain at +2000 to win the Super Bowl.

10. Minnesota Vikings (+2200), Last Week: No. 9

Minnesota is still unbeaten at 4-0, but Dewey is not convinced the Vikings are worth their current Super Bowl price. Their offense has struggled, while several of their wins have come against weaker opponents.

Dewey said, “I wouldn’t bet on this team at this current price.”

The Vikings’ defense remains among the league’s better units, but Dewey expects Minnesota to eventually fall back in the NFC North race and settle into the wild-card picture.

11. Dallas Cowboys (+2700), Last Week: No. 15

Dallas moved up four spots after a comeback victory over Houston strengthened its NFC East position. The Eagles are 2-2, while the Giants are dealing with injuries at 3-1.

Dewey wrote, “I’m buying this offense heading into Week 5.”

The Cowboys’ Super Bowl odds only improved from +2800 to +2700, but their division odds have dropped to +144. Their case for winning the NFC East has become much stronger.

12. New England Patriots (+2500), Last Week: No. 16

New England’s upset victory over Buffalo gave the Patriots one of their biggest wins of the season and pushed them four spots higher. Drake Maye looked more comfortable while helping the Patriots back into the AFC East race.

Dewey wrote, “New England is an interesting playoff contender in the AFC.”

Maye threw three touchdown passes and added 54 rushing yards in the win. If he can get back to his 2025 level, Dewey believes New England could remain relevant in the AFC.

13. Detroit Lions (+2400), Last Week: No. 12

Detroit fell to 2-2 after another defensive struggle and dropped one place. The Lions still have a strong offense, but their depleted secondary continues to create problems.

Dewey wrote, “It’s hard to view this team as a Super Bowl contender.”

Detroit’s Super Bowl odds fell from +1900 to +2400 after the loss. The Lions will need to find answers on defense if they are going to remain in the championship conversation.

14. Las Vegas Raiders (+7400), Last Week: No. 17

The Raiders moved up three spots despite losing their unbeaten record against Kansas City. Las Vegas stayed competitive against the Chiefs and also saw its Super Bowl odds improve from +9000 to +7400.

Dewey wrote, “There is a clear floor with Kirk Cousins under center.”

The writer believes the Raiders could stay in the playoff race as long as Cousins remains healthy. Their current odds still make them a long shot compared with the top contenders.

15. Cincinnati Bengals (+1900), Last Week: No. 10

Cincinnati dropped five places after losing consecutive games to Pittsburgh and Jacksonville. The Bengals also lost Ja’Marr Chase to a concussion in Week 4.

Dewey wrote, “I’d stay away from the Bengals at this price.”

Cincinnati’s defense has improved compared with recent seasons, but its Super Bowl odds have started to drift. At +1900, Dewey does not see the Bengals as a safe bet to even reach the AFC playoffs.

16. Philadelphia Eagles (+2000), Last Week: No. 6

Philadelphia suffered one of the week’s biggest drops after giving away a 10-point lead against the Rams. Several important offensive players are also dealing with injuries.

Dewey wrote, “There’s no way to view it as a contender to win the Super Bowl.”

Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are all banged up. The Eagles have now lost momentum after difficult games against Chicago and Los Angeles, while their Super Bowl odds have fallen sharply.

17. Cleveland Browns (+18000), Last Week: No. 21

Cleveland’s 3-1 record has pushed the Browns four spots higher despite their extremely long Super Bowl odds. They also picked up an important AFC North victory over Pittsburgh.

Dewey emphasized, “The Cleveland Browns are 3-1.”

Deshaun Watson has played solidly through four games, while Cleveland’s Super Bowl odds moved from +20000 to +18000. The Browns are also down to +250 to make the playoffs.

18. Indianapolis Colts (+6500), Last Week: No. 20

Indianapolis continued to climb after winning consecutive games and moving into the AFC South race. With Houston sitting at 0-4, the Colts now have a clearer route toward the postseason.

Dewey wrote, “Indy has moved up to +6500 to win the Super Bowl.”

Jonathan Taylor and the Colts have strengthened their position in the division, while their wild-card path also looks more realistic than it did before the season. Indianapolis has moved up two spots from last week’s ranking.

19. New Orleans Saints (+8000), Last Week: No. 19

The Saints stayed in the same position heading into Monday night’s game against Atlanta. A win would move New Orleans back to .500 and put the team in control of the NFC South.

Dewey wrote, “The Saints have a chance to move back to .500.”

New Orleans has Super Bowl odds of +8000 and could improve its standing depending on the result against the Falcons.

20. Carolina Panthers (+9000), Last Week: No. 24

Carolina made a four-place jump despite questions on defense. The Panthers are sitting near the top of the NFC South and head into their Week 5 bye in a strong position.

Dewey wrote, “Bryce Young has been terrific through four weeks.”

Jaycee Horn’s absence remains a concern, and Dewey does not expect the NFC South to produce a Super Bowl contender. Still, the Panthers could be undervalued in the division race.

21. New York Giants (+15000), Last Week: No. 23

The Giants are surprisingly sitting atop the NFC East after beating Arizona, yet their Super Bowl odds remain among the league’s longer prices.

Dewey wrote, “The Giants are in first place in the NFC East.”

Jameis Winston has shown he can beat weaker opponents, but the writer remains skeptical about New York’s ability to compete for a Super Bowl. A tougher schedule is also ahead.

22. Pittsburgh Steelers (+10000), Last Week: No. 14

Pittsburgh suffered one of the week’s biggest drops after losing to Cleveland. Its Super Bowl odds doubled from +5000 to +10000, reflecting the growing concerns around the team.

Dewey wrote, “Pittsburgh took a massive step back in the futures market.”

Aaron Rodgers’ current ceiling is a concern, while the defense has not played at the level needed to carry the team. Dewey does not see the Steelers as contenders unless that unit becomes one of the league’s best.

23. Green Bay Packers (+5000), Last Week: No. 22

Green Bay moved slightly up in the Super Bowl market but fell one place in the rankings. The Packers struggled against Tampa Bay despite improving their odds from +5500 to +5000.

Dewey wrote, “The Green Bay running game is really shaky.”

The Packers also face a difficult NFC North, with Detroit, Minnesota and Chicago all off to stronger starts. That division could make Green Bay’s road to the postseason difficult.

24. Houston Texans (+4500), Last Week: No. 18

Houston continues to slide after falling to 0-4. The Texans’ defense, which ranked No. 1 in 2025, gave up 34 points against Dallas and has struggled badly early this season.

Dewey wrote, “This team is facing a major uphill battle to make the playoffs in 2026.”

C.J. Stroud and the offense had a solid outing, but Houston’s defense sits in the bottom 10 in EPA per play. The Texans are now two games behind the Colts in the AFC South.

25. Atlanta Falcons (+12000), Last Week: No. 28

Atlanta climbed three places despite having its Week 4 game against New Orleans still to play. The Falcons have an opportunity to take control of the NFC South with a Monday night victory.

Dewey wrote, “The Falcons have a chance to take the top spot in the NFC South.”

Atlanta’s Super Bowl odds sit at +12000, leaving the team well outside the main group of championship favorites.

26. Washington Commanders (+9000), Last Week: No. 25

Washington slipped one spot after losing to Indianapolis despite taking an early lead. The Commanders also lost Marcus Mariota to a knee injury during the game.

Dewey noted, “Jayden Daniels (elbow) may return in Week 5.”

The Commanders are 1-3 and sit last in the NFC East. Their Super Bowl odds moved from +8000 to +9000, although Dewey believes the market may still be giving too much weight to Daniels’ potential return.

27. Los Angeles Chargers (+10000), Last Week: No. 23

The Chargers continued their miserable start with another defeat, falling to 0-4 after losing to Seattle. They dropped four spots in the rankings and now have +10000 Super Bowl odds.

Dewey’s blunt assessment was, “Rock. Bottom.”

Los Angeles has gone from +6500 to +10000 in the Super Bowl market. The schedule does not get easier, with the Broncos, Chiefs and Rams coming up over the next three weeks.

28. New York Jets (+30000), Last Week: No. 26

The Jets are now 1-3 after losing three straight games following their Week 1 victory. Their latest loss came against Chicago, which controlled the ball for more than 40 minutes.

Dewey wrote, “I’m not sure Aaron Glenn is going to be safe to finish the 2026 season.”

New York is now tied for the third-worst Super Bowl odds at +30000. Dewey sees little reason to expect a successful season from the Jets based on their current position.

29. Arizona Cardinals (+30000), Last Week: No. 30

Arizona has dropped three straight games since its Week 1 upset of the Chargers and remains near the bottom of the Super Bowl market. The Cardinals also struggled to slow down the Giants in Week 4.

Dewey wrote, “Let’s be honest, this is where we all expected the Cardinals to be this season.”

Arizona’s offense has shown it can score, but the Cardinals are stuck in a difficult NFC West. Their +30000 Super Bowl odds reflect just how far they have fallen.

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+15000), Last Week: No. 29

Tampa Bay is now 0-4 and has fallen to the bottom of the NFC South in the betting market. The Buccaneers’ Super Bowl odds have moved from +10000 to +15000.

Dewey asked, “Is Tampa Bay still alive in the NFC South?”

Baker Mayfield could miss as many as six weeks, leaving undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels in line to lead the offense. Tampa Bay now faces Dallas in Week 5 with its season already in a difficult position.

31. Tennessee Titans (+50000), Last Week: No. 31

Tennessee remains second-to-last in the Super Bowl market after falling to 0-4. The Titans were down 24-7 against Baltimore before a late touchdown made the final score closer.

Dewey wrote, “Tennessee has shown no sign of growth in Robert Saleh’s first season as head coach.”

Lamar Jackson missed the entire second half for Baltimore, but the Titans still could not turn the game around. The team’s Super Bowl odds remain at +50000, while questions are also beginning to surround Cam Ward.

32. Miami Dolphins (+100000), Last Week: No. 32

Miami remains at the bottom of the rankings after a difficult start to the season. The Dolphins entered 2026 in rebuilding mode, and De’Von Achane’s season-ending injury has made the situation even harder.

Dewey wrote, “I don’t think Miami goes winless.”

The Dolphins stayed competitive against undefeated Minnesota but remain without enough firepower to consistently challenge stronger teams.

Their +100000 Super Bowl odds are by far the longest in the league, and Dewey believes a run at the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft is now a real possibility.

The Super Bowl picture is already starting to shift after four weeks, with unbeaten teams like the 49ers and Chiefs strengthening their cases while several preseason favorites have slipped.

With 15 teams still sitting below 30/1 odds, there is plenty of time for the rankings to change again. Week 5 could bring another major shake-up as teams look to turn early-season form into a genuine playoff push.