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Imago

Oct 7, 2026, 12:41 AM CUT

2026 NFL Super Bowl Odds After Week 4: Which Teams Are Most Likely To Win? 

Four weeks in, the Super Bowl LXI race has been reshuffled. The Los Angeles Rams now sit alone as the favorites after a late comeback win over the Philadelphia Eagles, ending their shared lead with Buffalo.

The biggest risers and fallers are far from the top. The Atlanta Falcons have gone from the league's weakest offense to its best in two weeks, while the winless Los Angeles Chargers have seen their title odds collapse.

Other contenders took hits too. Buffalo's perfect start ended with a loss to New England, and Green Bay and Philadelphia have both slipped from where they began the year.

With that in mind, here's where all 32 teams stand in the Super Bowl LXI odds after Week 4, along with the storylines behind the biggest moves, according to FOX Sports.

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1. Los Angeles Rams (+650)

The Rams retake the top spot after rallying from 10 points down late to beat Philadelphia 24-20, a game in which their win probability dipped to 3.2%, per Next Gen Stats. It capped a rocky stretch that included a Week 1 blowout in Australia, Myles Garrett's knee surgery, and a Week 3 loss to Denver after leading 16-0.

2. Buffalo Bills (+750)

Buffalo's 3-0 start ended with a Week 4 loss to a rejuvenated New England team led by Drake Maye. At 3-1, the Bills still hold the second-best odds on the board.

3. Baltimore Ravens (+850, tied)

Baltimore won a nail-biter over Dallas in Week 3, with Lamar Jackson hitting Zay Flowers for 27 yards in the closing seconds to set up Tyler Loop's winning kick.

4. San Francisco 49ers (+850, tied)

The 49ers opened the season with a 27-7 win over the Rams and carried top-five marks in scoring offense, scoring defense, and red-zone efficiency into Week 3.

5. Kansas City Chiefs (+900)

Kansas City was still unbeaten at 3-0 heading into Week 4, keeping it firmly in the conversation just behind the leaders.

6. Seattle Seahawks (+950)

The Seahawks are the reigning Super Bowl champions and remain priced like a contender.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (+1500)

Jacksonville has strung together wins over New England in Week 3 and Cincinnati in Week 4, building on last year's AFC South title.

8. Chicago Bears (+1800)

Chicago's 27-7 win over the Eagles on Monday night, with Case Keenum at quarterback, lifted the Bears into the second group's top tier.

9. Cincinnati Bengals (+1900)

The Bengals fell to Jacksonville in Week 4, with Joe Burrow throwing three interceptions and Ja'Marr Chase leaving with a concussion, according to local reports.

10. Denver Broncos (+2000)

Denver's second-half comeback against the Rams in Week 3 is the signature result of its season so far.

11. Minnesota Vikings (+2200)

The Vikings arrived at Week 4 unbeaten at 3-0, which makes their price one of the longer ones among the league's early overperformers.

12. Philadelphia Eagles (+2400, tied)

Philadelphia has slid from +1500 after back-to-back losses to the Bears and Rams, the second of which came after it let a 10-point fourth-quarter lead get away.

13. Detroit Lions (+2400, tied)

Detroit, under Dan Campbell, has a strong record of bouncing back after defeats, according to CBS Sports.

14. New England Patriots (+2500)

The Patriots upset Buffalo in Buffalo for the second straight year, with Maye playing like the quarterback of last season.

15. Dallas Cowboys (+2700)

Dallas lost that Week 3 game against the Ravens in Rio de Janeiro, the first NFL game ever played in Brazil, despite being the nominal home team.

16. Houston Texans (+4500)

Houston is the best-priced of the three AFC South teams behind Jacksonville in the Super Bowl market, ahead of Indianapolis and Tennessee.

17. Green Bay Packers (+6500, tied)

The Packers are 2-2 after giving up 35 to Atlanta in a Week 3 home-opener loss, their first since 2012, and then barely beating a Tampa Bay team led by an undrafted rookie quarterback.

18. Indianapolis Colts (+6500, tied)

The Colts shared the stage with Washington in Week 4, when the two teams played the first of this season's London games.

19. Las Vegas Raiders (+7400)

Las Vegas entered Week 4 at 3-0, an unexpected start for a team priced this far down the board.

20. Atlanta Falcons (+8000, tied)

Atlanta has improved from +12000 after a dominant Monday night win over New Orleans, scoring a league-best 80 points in Weeks 3 and 4 after a league-low 16 in the first two weeks. Bijan Robinson and Drake London have driven the surge with 650 combined scrimmage yards over the last two games.

21. Carolina Panthers (+8000, tied)

Carolina matches the Falcons' price, though without the late-season momentum Atlanta has built.

22. New Orleans Saints (+9000, tied)

The Saints took the brunt of Atlanta's breakout on Monday night, dropping a lopsided game to the Falcons.

23. Washington Commanders (+9000, tied)

Washington's outlook is clouded by an elbow injury to quarterback Jayden Daniels, who is expected to miss an extended stretch.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers (+10000, tied)

Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati in Week 3 behind a balanced offense led by Aaron Rodgers.

25. Los Angeles Chargers (+10000, tied)

The Chargers are 0-4 for the first time since 2017 and have lost seven straight, sending their odds tumbling from +1600 before the season. Justin Herbert also leads the league in interceptions on deep throws.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+15000, tied)

The Buccaneers pushed Green Bay to the brink in Week 4 with an undrafted rookie quarterback starting.

27. New York Giants (+15000, tied)

The Giants share Tampa Bay's price, marking the last tier before the board stretches toward the real longshots.

28. Cleveland Browns (+18000)

Cleveland sits just ahead of the three teams at the bottom of the board.

29. New York Jets (+30000, tied)

The Jets were 6.5-point underdogs at Detroit in Week 3, a fair snapshot of how oddsmakers see them.

30. Arizona Cardinals (+30000, tied)

Arizona entered Week 3 coming off a 24-point home loss to a backup quarterback and ranking near the bottom of the league in both rushing and passing offense.

31. Tennessee Titans (+50000)

Tennessee started the season 0-3, and the oddsmakers have priced it accordingly.

32. Miami Dolphins (+100000)

Miami is the longest shot on the board, and entered Week 3 as an 11.5-point home underdog to Kansas City.

Between a favorite that keeps finding dramatic ways to win and lose, a Falcons offense that has caught fire, and a Chargers season already in trouble, the Super Bowl picture still has plenty of room to change heading into Week 5.

Written by

Chionia Libania Colaco